Intrade: Hoffman Has 65 Percent Chance of Winning NY-23

Nov2

Posted in: General 2 Comments

Earlier, Eric Odom, brought you the new Siena poll results showing Conservative Party Nominee Doug Hoffman pulling ahead in New York’s 23rd district special election.

Today’s poll result show a clear shift in direction in the special election for NY23.

Today’s poll results:
Hoffman: 41%
Ownes: 36%

Taking note of this shift, online betters on the popular online prediction market site – Intrade, have Doug Hoffman trading at 66.0

In New York, Hoffman has a 65 percent chance of winning tomorrow’s special election to succeed Republican John McHugh, who became secretary of the Army, according to Intrade. Over the weekend, the Republican nominee in the race, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Bill Owens.

Bloomberg is also reporting that Chris Christy is up and Corzine has dropped in trading:

Bets that Democrat Corzine, 62, will get a new term traded at 50 today, meaning that the online exchange puts his chances of being re-elected at 50 percent. That was down 12 points from the last close, meaning a surge for Republican nominee Christopher Christie, 47.

A Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University poll released today gave former U.S. Attorney Christie a 42 percent to 40 percent edge over Corzine, within the survey’s margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Independent Christopher Daggett had 12 percent. The poll was taken Oct. 27-Nov. 1.

As for the Governor’s Race in Virginia, Bob McDonell looks to have that race won:

Intrade bettors rate McDonnell, 54, the former state attorney general, as having a 97 percent chance of winning election tomorrow and ending Democrats’ eight-year hold on Virginia’s governorship. He is running against state Senator Creigh Deeds, 51. An Oct. 22-25 Washington Post poll gave McDonnell a 55 percent to 44 percent lead.

Without making any premature predictions… the possibility of a sweep for Conservatives and Liberty Movement candidates is real. If the election results emulate the Intrade predictions thus far, one would have to look upon these races as the beginning of the rebuke of not only Democrats and Democrats masquerading as Republicans but a rebuke of President Obama’s failed policies and Liberalism in general.

Maybe after this election we can finally call and end to the charge of astroturf-ers and media types using obscenities like “Teabaggers” to describe Americans who want the chance to vote for principles, truth, freedom, and liberty!