Filling in for Dylan Ratigan on his daily MSNBC show, left-wing internet voice Cenk Uygur tried to prove that President Obama’s policies to date have been more conservative than those of President Reagan. Uygur is the host of “The Young Turks,” a liberal internet podcast.

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Among all voters, there has been a significant swing since 2008 when Democrats took their new majority won in 2006 to an even higher level. But when you home in on those people in this survey who are most likely to vote, the numbers are devastating. The NBC/WSJ survey, when combined with a previously released NPR study of likely voters in 70 competitive House districts by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger, point to an outcome for Democrats that is as serious as a heart attack. Make no mistake about it: There is a wave out there, and for Democrats, the House is, at best, teetering on the edge.

To be sure, things could change in the four months between now and November 2. The GOP’s failure to get Republicans to vote in the May 18 special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th District underscores that the party can’t just sit back and await spontaneous combustion in terms of turnout. Still, the potential is here for a result that is proportional to some of the bigger postwar midterm wave elections. These kinds of waves are often ragged; almost always some candidates who looked dead somehow survive and others who were deemed safe get sucked down in the undertow. That’s the nature of these beasts. But the recent numbers confirm that trends first spotted late last summer have fully developed into at least a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Given how many House seats were newly won by Democrats in 2008 in GOP districts, and given that this election is leading into an all-important redistricting year, this reversal of fortune couldn’t have happened at a worse time for Democrats.

It’s good news for the conservative movement, but the result obviously isn’t set in stone. There are 4 more months that could make all the difference, and it should be a fight we’re all willing to engage in.

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Ohio Senate: Rob Portman (R) 38% and Lee Fisher (D) 40%

This race is interesting because it’s taking place in a hot year in a bellweather and swing state. Everyone saw this race as close from the beginning, probably not quite this close. Lee Fisher, the Democrat, eeks out with 40% to Portman’s 38% – well within the poll’s 4.5% margin of error.

Quinnipiac also posted a poll with similar results. Rob Portman still down by 2 with 40% to Fisher’s 42% and a margin of error of 3%.

The race is clearly in the air, especially when you consider the 22% of the vote that is undecided. Keep your eye on this race, I expect it to stay at the flip of the coin for a long while.

Kentucky Senate: Rand Paul (R) 49% and Jack Conway (D) 42%

In my home state, Rand Paul continues to hold a lead over “Kentucky’s Obama” Jack Conway despite recent controversies. Paul beats Conway 49% to 42% with 6% undecided which bodes well for Paul. The margin of error sits at 4.5%.

Most of the other subject matter of the poll, issues such as immigration, health care reform give a clear conservative trend. Another great sign for Paul, barring another campaign implosion.

Missouri Senate: Roy Blunt (R) 48% and Robin Carnahan (D) 43%

Congressman Blunt still holds a somewhat stable lead over his challenger Robin Carnahan with a commanding 48% to the Democrat’s 43% and 6 point margin of error, according to Rasmussen.

For the moment, the seat looks to be safe in Republican hands.

Several important Romney endorsements seem to be paving the way for a 2012 b. One is the endorsement of Terry Branstad in Iowa, the important first state in the primary elections. The other was an endorsement of Nikki Haley in the Republican South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary.

From CNN:

“These endorsements are another in a series of state rollouts of the PAC’s 2010 endorsements, which are aimed at electing conservative candidates who will work to lower taxes and spending, restore commonsense principles to healthcare and get our economy moving again,” says a statement from the PAC.

“This coming election is going to yield some great wins for the Republican party and Governor Romney believes that the candidates we have running, not only in Maine but around the country, are among the most talented our party has seen in a very long time,” says Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom.

From Politics Nation:

In the meantime, politicos in Florida and certainly across the country will continue to debate what his predicament means for Crist, for the Senate race, and for the Republican Party in general.

Hit the jump for more!

Heading into the week, reports seem to indicate Crist is leaning toward an independent run. Marco Rubio has built a lead that seems insurmountable given the governor’s standing in his own party right now. Some longtime allies are reportedly warning him against abandoning the party he has built his career with, with one notion being that Crist himself once had such an intimidating lead, and that Rubio’s warts are only beginning to come to light as the toast of the tea party movement has built his following.

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“I hope Mayor Daley seeks reelection. I will work and support him if he seeks reelection,” Emanuel said, according to a transcript from the show. “But if Mayor Daley doesn’t, one day I would like to run for mayor of the city of Chicago…That’s always been an aspiration of mine even when I was in the House of Representatives.”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2010/04/20/rahm-emanuel-wants-to-run-for-chicago-mayor/#ixzz0ldXrKbS4

We weep for ye, Chicago.

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73wire wrote earlier this week that George Pataki, former governor of New York, decided not to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand despite polling in his favor. Instead, Pataki has expressed desire to “create a new national organization aimed at building support to repeal the recently enacted health-care overhaul.”

Now there’s rumors he could instead be looking into a 2012 presidential bid. John Cornyn thinks so, anyway:

“I talked to him [Pataki] yesterday, and he told me he wasn’t going to [run for Senate],” Cornyn told The Hill. “I’ve been talking to him for a year and a half, and I’ve been reading the polls. I think there’s real opportunity there. But he’s decided he’s not running for it. My thought is, of course, he’s rumored to be a potential candidate for president, and I think he’s got his sights set on other offices, maybe including running for president. That’d be my guess.”

If Pataki takes that route, could he be a Giuliani redux?